KIWIBLOG DEBATE OVER HONE HARAWIRA/ MANA PARTY / TE TAI TOKERAU RESULTS:
26 June 2011 Inventory2 (6,431) Says: June 26th, 2011 at 9:54 am
Here’s a serious question for Penny Bright. After the Botany by-election, she was forecasting the demise of the National Party based on the low turnout for the by-election, which was entirely expected.
Based on that, does she believe that Hone Harawira has a mandate from the electors of Te Tai Tokerau given that: * 33% of eligible, enrolled voters turned out to vote, and * Hone Harawira got less than 50% of the votes cast, and *On that basis, Hone Harawira is supported by around 16% or eligible Te Tai Tokerau voters?
As I began, this is a serious question. Ought there now be fresh consideration of the abolition of the Maori seats given that this was as high-profile as a by-election gets (far moreso than Botany), yet two-thirds of registered electors were too apathetic to vote? Compared to the Te Tai Tokerau numbers, Jami-Lee Ross’ result in Botany was an absolute landslide. _________________________________________________________________________________________________ errr.. how about some FACTS to underpin your arguably ‘not-so-considered’ opinions ‘Inventory 2’?
1) Most people seem to have completely forgotten about the yet to be counted Te Tai Tokerau 1,916 ‘special votes’.
So – at this stage any talk of Hone Harawira’s majority is arguably premature.
At the moment his majority is 867 over Labour’s Kelvin Davis – but with nearly 2000 votes to be counted – it is highly likely to end up being far greater than that.
2) Voter turnout. Most people have missed counting the ‘polled’ votes with the ‘special’ votes.
Counting both – the voter turnout in the Te Tai Tokerau 2011 by-election was 41.36%.
Which is significantly more than the voter turnout in the 2011 Botany by-election – which was 36.44%
3) Drop in electorate voter turnout.
Comparison between the Botany and Te Tai Tokerau 2011 by-elections:
Hmmmm………. fascinating that no one else that I know of appears to have discovered this rather significant statistic?
a) In Botany 2008 – the electorate voter turnout was 76.29%
In the Botany by-election 2011 – the voter turnout was 36.44%
(A drop in voter turnout of almost 40%)
b) In Te Tai Tokerau 2008 the voter turnout was 63.25%
In Te Tai Tokerau 2011 the voter turnout was 41.36%
(A drop in voter turnout of almost 22% )
ie: The drop in % voter turnout in the Botany by-election was almost double that of Te Tai Tokerau?
4) Comparison between electorate vote majorities of winning candidates, for Botany and Te Tai Tokerau.
a) 2008 Botany election – Pansy Wong 10,872 majority over Labour’s Koro TAWA
2011 Botany by-election – Jami-Lee Ross 3,972 majority over Labour’s Michael WOOD.
Majority ‘slashed’ by 6,900
b) 2008 Te Tai Tokerau election – Hone Harawira 6,308 majority over Kelvin Davis
2011 Te Tai Tokerau by-election – Hone Harawira 867 majority over Kelvin Davis
(1,916 special votes yet to counted.)
Majority ‘slashed’ by 5,541
EXCEPT 1,916 ‘SPECIAL’ VOTES HAVE YET TO BE COUNTED?
5) Comparison between total number of votes cast for winning candidates, for Botany and Te Tai Tokerau
a) 2008 Botany election – Pansy Wong 17,382
2011 Botany by-election – Jami-Lee Ross 8,352
Vote ‘slashed’ by 9,030
b) 2008 Te Tai Tokerau election – Hone Harawira 12,019
2011 Te Tai Tokerau by-election – Hone Harawira 5,611
Vote ‘slashed?’ by 6,408
(EXCEPT 1,916 ‘SPECIAL’ VOTES HAVE YET TO BE COUNTED) _____________________________________________________________________________________
Comparison of NZH headlines:
John Armstrong NZH – Botany
“Botany byelection loss holds silver lining for Labour Party”
John Armstrong NZH – Te Tai Tokerau
“Risky tactics leave Hone bruised” __________________________________________________________________________________________________
You can try putting your ‘spin’ machine into turbo drive – but those are the FACTS.
Kind regards, Penny Bright
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