THIS is the outcome big busine$$ want! ‘National forecast to govern alone’ NBR

18 April  2011

THIS is the outcome big busine$$ want! ‘National forecast to govern alone’ NBR

www.nbr.co.nz/article/national-forecast-govern-alone-nk-91094

National forecast to govern alone

National could govern alone after the next election even if Act and United Future were booted out and New Zealand First made it back in, iPredict’s weekly online snapshot suggests.

Unemployment, growth and inflation expectations are largely unchanged from last week, while the likelihood of big petrol price rises remains high in the latest snapshot.

However, the big news is in the political stocks, with National’s continuing popularity forecast to give it the option of governing alone after the election on November 26.

National is forecast to receive a party vote share of 48.0%, up from 46.5% last week but below the result in a TV3 poll that showed support for National at 57%.

This would give National 62 seats, enough for a majority without the support of Act, United Future or the Maori Party.

If Act Party leader Rodney Hide and United Future leader Peter Dunne both lost their electorate seats and New Zealand First made the 5% threshold National would still have 62 MPs and be able to govern alone.

Mr Hide is the most vulnerable leader of a parliamentary party, with the market showing a 24% probability he will be replaced before the election, up from only 7% last week.

Meanwhile, Labour leader Phil Goff’s position appears more secure after the turbulence following the Darren Hughes saga.

The probability Mr Goff will be rolled as leader before the election has dropped to just 12%, down from 17% last week, 22% two weeks ago and 42% three weeks ago.

More by Niko Kloeten

Comments and questions

MY COMMENT:

Niko Kloeten | Monday April 18, 2011 | 1 comment
National forecast to govern alone

National could govern alone after the next election even if Act and United Future were booted out and New Zealand First made it back in, iPredict’s weekly online snapshot suggests.”

Not if the Botany by-election results (the ONLY poll that matters) are anything to go by.

FACT: Asset sales WERE a Botany by-election issue.

FACT: Only 36% turned out to vote in a safe National seat, despite both ‘Mr Popular’ PM John Key BEGGING National Party supporters to get out and vote – over 9000 (former?) National party voters DIDN’T.

FACT: Phil Goff and Labour performed better in Botany than did John Key and National.

FACT: ‘The polls’ did NOT predict the massive 36% ‘no show’ especially by (former?) National Party supporters.

Of course big busine$$ support ‘partial privatisation’, so the corporate media campaign is full on to try and persuade the voting public to give National enough votes to govern alone.

Unfortunately – I think you’ll find that significant numbers of the voting public have NOT had a collective frontal lobotomy, and have learned that what is good for big busine$$ is usually not good for us.

And – we haven’t forgotten the identical campaign back in 2008 to similarly undermine NZ First and Winston Peters.

Thank you for confirming that I am absolutely ‘on target’ with my considered opinion.

🙂

Penny Bright
https://waterpressure.wordpress.com

Penny Bright | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 6:08pm

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Dream on without any key knowledge ofbasic politics at hand.

Anonymous | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 4:16pm

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Wish it was so – then MMP could RIP!

Alas – Tax payers still have to fund drop kicks in the MMP Rort.

Labour probably still think because they can register as a political party that they have some kind of mandate to even pretend to represent portions of NZ – yeah right!

Anony mous | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 4:26pm

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Which means that the Smiles R Us Party will be under even less scrutiny than it is now!

Footplate | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 6:03pm

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