The Watchdog

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National opens 30-point lead over Labour ( yeah – whatever…..) What about the BOTANY BY-ELECTION RESULT?

National opens 30-point lead over Labour

National has opened up a huge 30-point lead over Labour in the latest opinion poll.

The TV3 Reid Research poll puts National on 57.5 percent support, up 2.9 points from the last one, while Labour has dropped 3.8 points to 27.1 percent.

Those results would give National 71 seats in Parliament compared with Labour’s 34, and National would be able to govern on its own without any help from support parties.

In the 2008 election, National won 58 seats and Labour 43.

The poll showed little change in the minor party support levels.

In the preferred prime minister stakes, John Key was up slightly at 52.4 percent while Labour leader Phil Goff was on 6.8 percent.

Mr Key said the Government was very focused on the issues that mattered to New Zealand in relation to the economy, the earthquake and law and order.

“I think the contrast between us and Labour is that Labour is focused on itself,” he said.

Labour has been beset with internal problems over the police inquiry into a complaint laid against Darren Hughes by a young man and criticism of its list selection process by Damien O’Connor.

“This poll is worse than other polls which showed the gap much closer but it has been a couple of hard weeks in politics,” Mr Goff said.

The TV3 poll usually questions 1000 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent.


Comments and questions

MY COMMENT:

Interesting how the NZ Herald’s CHIEF Political Reporter’s analysis of the only poll that really matters – an ELECTION result – in this case the recent Botany by-election, plus the election result itself, somewhat differs from these ‘opinion’ polls?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10710626

Botany byelection loss holds silver lining for Labour Party
By John Armstrong
5:30 AM Monday Mar 7, 2011

At last, Phil Goff has something to smile about.

Exactly why the Labour leader is smiling might not seem immediately obvious given that National’s Jami-Lee Ross won Saturday’s Botany byelection in a canter, securing almost double the number of votes of his Labour counterpart.

The answer is that everything is relative in politics. Labour did better than it hoped. National did not fare as well as it would have expected.
……………………..”

Of course, as arguably proven in the 2008 general election, the way ‘democracy’ works in NZ, is that the public majority get the Government that the majority of big business want us to have – and this is achieved through corporate media manipulation?

Big business want ‘partial privatisation’ of state assets, especially electricity SOEs.

John Key /National support ‘ ‘partial privatisation’ of state assets, especially electricity SOEs.

Phil Goff/Labour think ‘ ‘partial privatisation’ of state assets, especially electricity SOEs.
is a ‘dumb idea’.

Arguably the Botany by-election result proves this? (Over 9000 former? National party voters – DON’T. Did ‘the polls’ predict this? DID THEY?

Corporate media campaign begins to try and undermine Labour and Labour’s leader, Phil Goff……………..

‘Polls’ like the one commented on today, arguably are used to keep the anti-Labour Party ‘beat-up’ going.

I predict a lot more ‘beat ups’ to come.

(Evidence to back up what I am saying is available on my blog:

https://waterpressure.wordpress.com

Penny Bright

Penny Bright | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 12:22pm
9________________________________________________________________________________________

John Key may have made a mistake releasing the election date too early. A lot can happen between now and the end of November
– inflation at 5.5% and the man in the street not too impressed with wages not keeping up
– The All Blacks don’t win the Rugby World Cup and sentiment is negative at election time
– The Christchurch earthquake victims are still waiting for EQC to get their act together
– the Government may still be playing games with Allan Hubbards life (potentially a Canterbury electoral problem )

John Key would be better to call the election early due to the current state of the economy and the hard decisions that need to be made – for once we could have an honest Government who actually get elected on a mandate from the voters.

And most people will be very happy that we have a one party Government without all the others hangers on and without a huge cost associated with being partners with the Maori party

Anonymous | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 8:01am

Chris CARTER, are you still interested in Labour’s Leadership?

No Time | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 8:15am

Snap election!!! Let’s get rid of Hone, Rodney and all the other hangers on while we can.

Patrick Bateman | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 8:35am
In response to Anonymous | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 8:01am

Re “John Key may have made a mistake releasing the election date too early.”

Really? Did you get your crystal ball from The Warehouse? Or, are you trying to do tea-leaf reading from a cup that has a tea bag? Dude, in case you missed the headline: the Nats have opened up a lead of 30 points over Labour. And it’s by default. Labour is in such a hopeless mess: because someone’s, forever, apologising or demanding an apology from someone else.They are a bunch of headless chooks, running around looking for the leader that’s flapped off.

Guys, Aunty is in Manhattan, taking up valuable space. And she’s not comin’ home anytime soon to whup your sorry asses. Move on!

Kloppotz | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 8:37am
In response to Kloppotz | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 8:37am

Kloppotz your maths and actuarial capabilities are weak.

We all agree that they have a huge lead but it is very unlikely to grow from now until the current election date. And at the moment National can govern alone but if they lose only a few points in the polls that won’t be achievable.

So what i am saying is go to the polls now and take out a huge majority and then we can all relax for the next 3 years while they are in a position to govern on their own.

Anonymous | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 8:43am

But does it matter? Even if they won an outright majority would they actually have the spine to make the hard decisions
ie cut WFF, do away with interest free student loans, overhaul superannuation?
I doubt it – so far Key has shown himself to be a happy to drift populist.

crowd pleaser | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 8:51am
In response to crowd pleaser | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 8:51am

The jury is out on whether they have the balls or not, but Bill English is indicating that time is imminent.

If National were honest and strong they would pitch their election policy on those hard but necessary policies. It is very rare when an electorate would readily accept such harsh reality bit right now they would.

Anonymous | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 9:28am

Can you imagine the lead National would have WITHOUT Nick Smith?

Brian | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 9:40am

Interesting how the NZ Herald’s CHIEF Political Reporter’s analysis of the only poll that really matters – an ELECTION result – in this case the recent Botany by-election, plus the election result itself, somewhat differs from these ‘opinion’ polls?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10710626

Botany byelection loss holds silver lining for Labour Party
By John Armstrong
5:30 AM Monday Mar 7, 2011

At last, Phil Goff has something to smile about.

Exactly why the Labour leader is smiling might not seem immediately obvious given that National’s Jami-Lee Ross won Saturday’s Botany byelection in a canter, securing almost double the number of votes of his Labour counterpart.

The answer is that everything is relative in politics. Labour did better than it hoped. National did not fare as well as it would have expected.
……………………..”

Of course, as arguably proven in the 2008 general election, the way ‘democracy’ works in NZ, is that the public majority get the Government that the majority of big business want us to have – and this is achieved through corporate media manipulation?

Big business want ‘partial privatisation’ of state assets, especially electricity SOEs.

John Key /National support ‘ ‘partial privatisation’ of state assets, especially electricity SOEs.

Phil Goff/Labour think ‘ ‘partial privatisation’ of state assets, especially electricity SOEs.
is a ‘dumb idea’.

Arguably the Botany by-election result proves this? (Over 9000 former? National party voters – DON’T. Did ‘the polls’ predict this? DID THEY?

Corporate media campaign begins to try and undermine Labour and Labour’s leader, Phil Goff……………..

‘Polls’ like the one commented on today, arguably are used to keep the anti-Labour Party ‘beat-up’ going.

I predict a lot more ‘beat ups’ to come.

(Evidence to back up what I am saying is available on my blog:

https://waterpressure.wordpress.com

Penny Bright

Penny Bright | Monday, April 18, 2011 – 12:22pm
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April 18, 2011 - Posted by | Fighting corruption in NZ, Human rights

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