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National Party votes drop from over 17,000 (2008) to 8,000 in Botany by-election 2011! Thousands of National Party voters – don’t! WHY?

National Party votes drop from over 17,000 (2008) to 8,000 in Botany by-election 2011!

Thousands of National Party voters – don’t!

WHY?

__________________________________________________________________________

The considered opinion of Botany by-election Independent candidate Penny Bright – ‘Public Watchdog’ :

The key FACTS, in my view, are:

1) This was an exceptionally low turnout for a by-election:

“Voter turnout for the 2011 Botany by-election is estimated to be 36.51%

of the 42,815 enrolled as at 5pm Friday 4 March.”

“The preliminary results are based on the 14,911 ordinary votes counted on

Election night.”

http://www.elections.org.nz/study/news/botany-by-election-preliminary-results.html

Botany by-election preliminary results

The Electoral Commission has released the preliminary results for the 5 March Parliamentary by-election in the electorate of Botany.

2011 Botany By-Election Preliminary Results
Candidate Party Number of Votes
AL-SAADY, Hussain Pirate Party of New Zealand 28
BIGGS, Leo Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 58
BRIGHT, Penny Independent 124
CAITHNESS, Robin Join Australia Movement Party 45
GOH, Robert Independent 31
MURPHY, Lyn ACT New Zealand 671
ROSS, Jami-Lee National Party 8150
WOOD, Michael Labour Party 4154
YOUNG, Paul New Citizen Party 1572
YOUNG, Wayne Independent 55
Candidate Informals 23
TOTAL 14,911

The preliminary results are based on the 14,911 ordinary votes counted on election night.

Special declaration votes still to be counted are estimated to be 719 (4.6% of total votes). This includes an estimated 19 overseas votes.

The total estimated votes (those counted on election night plus estimated special votes to be counted) are 15,630.

Voter turnout for the 2011 Botany by-election is estimated to be 36.51% of the 42,815 enrolled as at 5pm Friday 4 March.

The results, including results by polling place, are available from www.electionresults.govt.nz.

The Official Results process starts tomorrow Sunday 6 March and is expected to be completed by Wednesday 16 March. All votes counted on election night will be recounted. Special declaration votes will be processed and counted. The target to release the Official Results for the Botany by-election is noon Wednesday 16 March 2011.

2) National’s ‘safe’ majority was SLASHED compared to the 2008 Botany election and the majority of National voters DIDN’T even bother to vote compared to 2008.

2008: BOTANY ELECTION – OVERALL STATS:

Numbers enrolled:                Electorate votes cast:            % who voted :

43,354 31,305                                               76.29%.

2011: BOTANY BY-ELECTION – OVERALL STATS:

Numbers enrolled:                            Electorate votes cast:      % who voted :

42,815                                                             14,911 (Est.)                            36.51% (Est.)

2008: NATIONAL  ELECTORATE VOTE:

Electorate votes cast for National’s Pansy Wong:              Majority:                           %

17,382 10,872                                  56.22%

2011: NATIONAL  ELECTORATE VOTE:

Electorate votes cast for National’s Jami-Lee Ross:       Majority:                           %

8,150   (Est.)                                                                                                  3,996 (Est.) 56%(Est.)

http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2008/electorate-3.html

Official Count Results — Botany

This is not the formal declaration of results.
The Chief Electoral Officer declares the results of the official count by publishing a notice in the NZ Gazette.
Previous Electorate Electorate Index Next Electorate
Electorate Number: 3 Final: Yes
Polling Places Counted: 36 of 36 (100.0%) Votes Counted: 31,733
Winning Candidate: WONG, Pansy (NAT) Majority: 10,872
Parties Candidates
United Future 220 CARTER, Judy UFNZ 428
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 217 CHEAM, Racheal JAP 304
Green Party 756 COOPER, Peter GP 1,226
Kiwi Party 125 KAN, Simon KIWI 212
SUBRAMANIAN, Raj IND 140
Labour Party 7,958 TAWA, Koro LAB 6,510
ACT New Zealand 1,528 WANG, Kenneth ACT 4,717
National Party 19,355 WONG, Pansy NAT 17,382
Alliance 8
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 62
Democrats for Social Credit 2
Family Party 166
Libertarianz 10
Mäori Party 98
New Zealand First Party 678
New Zealand Pacific Party 295
RAM – Residents Action Movement 6
The Bill and Ben Party 98
The Republic of New Zealand Party 7
Workers Party 13
Party Informals 131 Candidate Informals 386
TOTAL 31,733 TOTAL 31,305
Previous Electorate Electorate Index Next Electorate

http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/MPP/Electorates/EPData/2/4/c/DBHOH_Lib_EP_Botany_Data_3-Botany-Electoral-Profile.htm

Election Results

The winning candidate in the 2008 election, Pansy Wong (National Party), captured a majority (56.22%) of the 30,919 valid electorate votes cast for candidates in the Botany electorate. The Botany electorate was a new electorate for the 2008 election and therefore there are no previous election results. The National Party also captured a majority (61.25%) of the party votes in Botany. Turnout (total votes cast as a proportion of enrolled electors) in 2008 was 76.29%.

2008 Election Results (Electorate)

Candidate Valid Votes Share (%)
WONG, Pansy (NAT) 17,382 56.22
TAWA, Koro (LAB) 6,510 21.06
WANG, Kenneth (ACT) 4,717 15.26
COOPER, Peter (GP) 1,226 3.97
CARTER, Judy (UFNZ) 428 1.38
CHEAM, Racheal (JAP) 304 0.98
KAN, Simon (KIWI) 212 0.69
SUBRAMANIAN, Raj (IND) 140 0.45
Total Valid Votes 30,919 100.00
Total Votes Cast 31,305 101.25

Winning Candidate: WONG, Pansy – majority 10872

For interpretation of abbreviations, see Glossary.

2008 Election Results – Party Vote

Party Valid Votes Share (%)
National Party 19,355 61.25
Labour Party 7,958 25.18
ACT New Zealand 1,528 4.84
Green Party 756 2.39
New Zealand First Party 678 2.15
New Zealand Pacific Party 295 0.93
United Future 220 0.70
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 217 0.69
Family Party 166 0.53
Kiwi Party 125 0.40
Mäori Party 98 0.31
The Bill and Ben Party 98 0.31
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 62 0.20
Workers Party 13 0.04
Libertarianz 10 0.03
Alliance 8 0.03
The Republic of New Zealand Party 7 0.02
RAM – Residents Action Movement 6 0.02
Democrats for Social Credit 2 0.01
Total Valid Votes 31,602 100.00
Total Votes Cast 31,733 100.41

Voter Enrolment and Turnout 2005, 2008

Botany NZ Botany NZ
2005 2008
Voting Age Population (VAP)* 0 0 46,200 3,138,000
Electors on General Roll (EGR) 0 0 41,969 2,761,093
Electors on Māori Roll 0 0 1,385 229,666
Total Enrolled** 0 0 43,354 2,990,759
Total Votes Cast by EGR (TVC) 0 0 32,019 2,233,146
% VAP Enrolled 0 0 94 95
Turnout (TVC as % EGR) 0 0 76 81

* Estimated population statistics as at: June 2005; June 2008; ** Enrolment statistics as at: September 2005; November 2008.

3) Despite both National Prime Minister John Key and National Party candidate Jami-Lee Ross imploring National Party supporters to get out and vote in the Botany by-election, the majority did NOT.  WHY?

In 2008, Pansy Wong’s electorate vote in Botany was                       17,382

In 2011 Jami-Lee Ross’s electorate vote in Botany was (so far)     8,150

ie: Over 9000 National Party voters apparently did NOT  vote.

ie: More National Party voters did NOT vote than DID vote?

These, surely, are the ‘apples’ that should be compared?

(I hear the sound of National’s  ‘spin machine’ going into turbo drive? )

“All in all, this shows that National has held its vote in the elec­torate.

So a good result for National.”

Cameron Slater blogs on Whaleoil 6 March 2011.

(????!!!!! What GALAXY are you on Cameron? J

by Whaleoil on March 6, 2011 · 1 comment

http://whaleoil.gotcha.co.nz/?p=21597

Jami-Lee Ross has clearly won the Botany By-Election.

To avoid the Left try­ing to claim the result any other way, I have done a com­par­i­son of the can­di­date vote for the Botany By-Election com­pared to the can­di­date vote from the 2008 Gen­eral elec­tion. This way we are com­par­ing apples with apples. The can­di­dates name and per­cent­age of the Can­di­dates vote that they got shown. The pre­vi­ous can­di­date for their respec­tive par­ties in brack­ets next to them with their per­cent­age of the can­di­date votes shown as well. It only shows the 3 par­ties that re-stood can­di­dates in this by election.

National Party: Jami-Lee Ross — 54.65% (Pansy Wong – 56.22%)
Labour Party: Michael Wood — 27.85% (Koro Tawa 21.06%)
Act Party: Lyn Mur­phy — 4.5% (Ken­neth Wang 15.26%)

So clearly, on the pre­lim­i­nary results, Jami-Lee has basi­cally held the can­di­date vote per­cent­age where it was under Pansy Wong. Michael Wood has seen an increase to Labours can­di­date vote of 6.79%. labour’s increase is to be expected Michael Wood actu­ally cam­paigned whereas Koro Tawa barely turned up last elec­tion. On the other hand ACT has seen their can­di­date vote drop by almost 11%.

I do won­der how many votes the New Cit­i­zen Party can­di­date (which got 10.5% of the can­di­date vote) took from each Par­ties candidate.

All in all, this shows that National has held its vote in the elec­torate. So a good result for National.”

___________________________________________________________________________________

KIWIBLOG

More Botany analysis

March 5th, 2011 at 11:06 pm by David Farrar

  • Total votes dropped from 30,919 in 2008 to 14,888 (+ specials) in 2011.
  • National/Ross won 17 of the 20 polling places
  • His best place was Howick, where Ross got over 68%
  • The worst place was Clover Park where Ross got 4.7% only, and Wood got 90.4%
  • Ross got over 60% in 10 of the 20 places, and over 50% in 15 of the 20 places
  • In Meadowlands, Paul Young of New Citizen got his best result with 16.7% – pipping Michael Wood on 15.8% to third place

Incidentially this is the first by-election in at least 30 years where the seat was held by the Government, with no significant decline in the share of the vote.

Taranaki-King Country, Selwyn, Tamaki, Timaru, East Coast Bays, Rangitikei all had the Government come bloody close to losing the seat, or actually losing the seat. The last by-election for a Government-held seat which saw the vote share not change much was probably Pahiatua in 1977.

Tags: Botany

Posted in NZ Politics

6 Comments

Little change in Botany

March 5th, 2011 at 8:46 pm by David Farrar

Pansy Wong got 56% of the vote in 2008, and Jami-Lee Ross got 55% of the vote in 2011. The turnout was (I estimate) around 38%, which is very low – even for by-elections. The majority is 3,996 and will end up being above 4,000 after specials. The turnout is half that of 2008, so it’s equal to around a 9,000 majority in a general election.

Michael Wood got 28% of the vote, which is up from the invisible Koro Tawa. Of course there was no Green candidate this time as they didn’t nominate in time.

In third place with 10.5% of the vote was Paul Young of the New Citizen Party. Looks like he piced up some of the vote which went to Kenneth Wang last time.

Congratulations to Jami-Lee Ross, the new MP for Botany. He has a long career ahead of him. Kudos to Michael Wood also for a sold effort he’ll be pleased with.

Tags: Botany, Jami-Lee Ross, Michael Wood

Posted in NZ Politics

___________________________________________________________________________

4) It was National’s intention to increase its majority in Botany. It FAILED.

“National out to increase majority in Botany”.

(NZPA | Wednesday December 15, 2010)

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/national-out-increase-majority-botany-134796

FACT: National’s majority was SLASHED in Botany.

(Let’s not play with percentages – look at the numbers of National voters?)

(Repetition is the mother of learning?)

2008: NATIONAL  ELECTORATE VOTE:

Electorate votes cast for National’s Pansy Wong:      Majority:                           %

17,382 10,872                                  56.22%

2011: NATIONAL  ELECTORATE VOTE:

Electorate votes cast for National’s Jami-Lee Ross:     Majority:                           %

8,150   (Est.)                                                                                             3,996(Est.) 56%(Est.)

www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1103/S00061/significant-swing-to-labour-in-botany.htm

There has been a swing to Labour of 4.2% according to Labour Leader, Phil Goff.

Sunday, 6 March 2011, 12:05 pm
Press Release: New Zealand Labour Party

Phil Goff
Labour Leader
06 March 2011 Media Statement

Significant swing to Labour in Botany

The Botany by-election delivered a significant swing to Labour of 4.2 per – cent in what is a National Party stronghold, says Labour Leader Phil Goff.

“The National candidate’s majority was slashed from more than 11,000 in 2008 to just under 4000 yesterday.

The Labour candidate Michael Wood increased his vote from 21 per-cent (the candidate vote in 2008) to 28 per-cent last night , ” says Phil Goff.

…………………………”

IMPLICATION: Is Prime Minister John Key  losing support amongst National Party voters in the only ‘poll’ that REALLY counts?

An election result?

The BIG question is – how many of these 9000 National Party voters who effectively gave both Prime Minister John Key and  Jami-Lee Ross the fingers, by not bothering to vote in the Botany by-election when asked, have permanently deserted National?

How many former National Party voters will NZ First pick up in the party vote?

National Party hacks can put on their bravest, shonky faces and phoney smiles, and try and spin these Botany by-election results any way they can – but FACTS are FACTS.

National’s numerical majority was SLASHED.

Thousands of (former?) National supporters in Botany ignored the call to vote.

End of story.

5) If the Botany by-election is to be seen as a litmus test for support for the John Key-led National/ ACT Government proposed ‘partial privatisation’ /’mixed ownership’ ASSET SALES proposal – then arguably it is a significant VOTE LOSER.

Arguably, it is not popular even amongst core National Party voters?

If it was popular – why didn’t 9000 National Party Botany voters get out and vote, and show their support for National when asked by ‘Mr Popular’  PM John Key?

6) ‘Penny Bright only got 124 votes – was her campaign therefore a failure?’

a) I did expect to get more than 124 votes, true, (but it’s still 124 more votes than I had before! J),  but from Day One, (15 December 2010) I stated that my main reason for standing was in order to focus as big a public spotlight as possible on the issues of opposition to corruption, and GENUINE transparency:

“Anti-Corruption campaigner Penny Bright to stand in the Botany by-election 2011.

15 December 201

“If this National/ACT Government thought that the departure of Pansy Wong would switch the light off the corruption issue – they could not have been more mistaken,” says Water Pressure Spokesperson and ‘anti-corruption campaigner, Penny Bright.

“I will be standing as an independent candidate in the Botany by-election on an anti-corruption / pro(GENUINE) transparency platform, in order to focus as big a public spotlight as possible on these issues.”

b) John Key then helped to focus the Botany by-election on the privatisation of state assets. Presumably he (and his ‘spin doctors’) were hoping that the public majority had had a collective frontal lobotomy and forgotten who had benefited and where the money had gone with the last bout of ‘commercialise, corporatize – PRIVATISE’ Rogernomic$?

http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/mp/8716182/responses-to-partial-state-asset-sale-proposal/

Responses to partial state asset sale proposal

NZPA January 26, 2011, 6:31 pm

Prime Minister John Key:

“We… expect to acquire $33 billion of net new assets over the next five years, including new schools, operating theatres, ultra-fast broadband and major investments in our state highways and other transport infrastructure. That is a considerable spend by any reckoning.

“At the margin there are two ways we can acquire new assets — either we can borrow more or we can change the mix of assets we own.”

…………………………………………………………………………………

NZPA

c) My comment ‘partial privatisation is like partial pregnancy – there is no such thing’ was widely publicised, following the first Botany by-election candidates debate on 15 February 2011.

To avoid using the ‘p’ (privatisation) word – National hacks now use the term ‘mixed ownership’ model.

(Yeah – whatever…………… )

CONCLUSION:

As far as I am concerned – my standing in the Botany by-election in order to help publicise and increase public understanding about privatisation and corruption and the need for GENUINE ‘open, transparent and democratically accountable central and local government’ – has been extremely effective and successful.

The barometer which I am using to measure this effectiveness and success is the slashed National Party numerical majority and massive 9000 National Party ‘no show’ on election day.

I expect Prime Minister John Key’s shonky smile to look more forced and fake than ever, as his current and corporate raider past is revealed.

(Heard of Evelian Gilbert: Merrill Lynch/John Key researcher?

‘What was John Key’s true background in Merrill Lynch’

Have the public been told the truth about John Key’s corporate past?

http://aotearoaawiderperspective.wordpress.com )

It is my prediction that as John Key’s credibility slides, so will his and National’s public support.

HAVE YOU SEEN THESE?

1) Is John Key personally profiting from NZ’s growing indebtedness?:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXwNoaOpDMw

2) Details of Penny Bright’s private prosecution against John Key over Tranz Rail before the 2008 election:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFTYZVQo-A8&feature=related

______________________________________________________________

I will continue to act as an INDEPENDENT ‘Public Watchdog’, and do my best to keep the public informed of developments, working together with others who believe that the public has a right to know where exactly our public monies are going, and who is benefiting,  and to whom exactly NZ is indebted.

(In my view – the ‘line in the sand’ is not between so-called ‘left’ and ‘right’ but between the public and corporate interests.

EG:   ‘Sensible sentencing’?  How about ‘sensible arresting’?

Did the Police arrest the wrong person?
From the past – ex-Mayor Dick Hubbard having Penny Bright arrested  on    International World Water Day, 22 March 2007:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcieegXjttg&feature=related

JUDICIAL CORRUPTION IN NZ?

Vince Siemer: ‘Judicial’ Public Watchdog. Jailed three times in NZ – although he has never broken any law.

His story – will SHOCK you!

www.kiwisfirst.co.nz

______________________________________________________________________

BOTANY BY-ELECTION –  MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. J

Thanks everyone who helped!

To keep up to date – keep checking on my blog:

https://waterpressure.wordpress.com

Cheers!

Penny

Penny Bright
Media Spokesperson
Water Pressure Group
Judicially recognised Public Watchdog on Metrowater, water and Auckland regional governance matters.
“Anti-corruption campaigner”.

Attendee: Australian Public Sector Anti-Corruption Conference 2009
Attendee: Transparency International’s 14th Anti-Corruption Conference 2010
Auckland Mayoral Candidate 2010.
Independent Candidate Botany by-election 2011.

https://waterpressure.wordpress.com

Ph (09) 846 9825
021 211 4 127

OTHER MEDIA ARTICLES ON THE BOTANY BY-ELECTION 2011 RESULTS:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1103/S00053/national-holds-botany.htm

National Holds Botany

Saturday, 5 March 2011, 8:37 pm
Article: The Scoop Team

National Holds Botany

National’s Jamie-Lee Ross has won the Botany by-election with a very low turn out.

He gained a majority of 3996 with 14,911 votes cast.

Candidates
AL-SAADY, Hussain PIR 28
BIGGS, Leo ALCP 58
BRIGHT, Penny IND 124
CAITHNESS, Robin JAMP 45
GOH, Robert IND 31
MURPHY, Lyn ACT 671
ROSS, Jami-Lee NAT 8,150
WOOD, Michael LAB 4,154
YOUNG, Paul NCP 1,572
YOUNG, Wayne IND 55

In 2008, National Pansy Wong received 17,382 votes over Labour’s Koro Tawa 6,510.

She gained a majority of 10,782 with 30,919 votes cast.

The by-election was called after Wong resigned late last year over her use of international travel subsidies.

ends

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/ross-wins-botany-becomes-countrys-youngest-mp-ck-87548

Ross wins Botany, becomes country’s youngest MP

Jami-Lee Ross.

BOTANY BYELECTION
Jami-Lee Ross, National: 8150 (56%)
Michael Wood, Labour: 4154 votes (27.9%)
Paul Young, New Citizens Party: 1572 (10.5%)
Lyn Murphy, Act: 671 (4.5%)

Turnout: 36.5% (second lowest on record for a by-election).

National majority: 3996 (56% of 14,911 votes cast)
National majority, 2008 election: 10,872 (55.52% of 31,305 votes cast)

See the full preliminary results for last night’s bylection on the  Electoral Commission website here (and fulll 2008 results here).

National’s Jami-Lee Ross (25) became the country’s youngest MP last night after winning the Botany byelection with a majority of 3996.

Prime minister John Key, cabinet ministers Judith Collins and Maurice Williamson, plus around 100 supporters, joined Mr Lee-Ross as results came in.

Mr Ross’ majority was around 7000 votes fewer than that achieved by Pansy Wong for the east Auckland seat at the 2008 general election.

That headline number looks bad.

Yet the extremely low-turnout (36.7%, or just under half the voters who turn out for the general election) saw Mr Lee-Ross actually snare a slightly higher percentage of votes (56%) than Ms Wong (55.52%), whose resignation sparked the byelection.

“I think it shows that the government’s in good shape. But I think the turnout is so low and the conditions are so unusual that I wouldn’t read too much into it either way,” Mr Key said.

Act vote collapses
There can be no finessing the Act result, however. The party’s candidate, Lyn Murphy, recieved just 674 votes (or 4.5%), and was pushed into fourth place by the Asian-backed New Citizens Party, which collected 1572.

At the 2008 general election, Act’s Kenneth Wang drew 4717 votes, or 15.07%.

The New Citizens Party members include former Labour candidate Stephen Ching and Jack Chen, Jack Chen, one of the driving forces behind the bid by Hong Kong company Natural Dairy NZ for the Crafar farms.

Labour gains
Labour’s candidate, union organiser Michael Wood, increased his party’s share of the vote from 21% at the 2008 general election to 27.9%.

But with turnout (36.5%) the second lowest on record for a byelection amid the distraction of the Christchurch quake, wet weather and the wide assumption Mr Ross would romp home  (14,911 Botonians voted, compared to 31,305 in 2008), pundits should be hesitent to draw too many conclusions from Mr Wood’s advance.

Left wing agitator and prolific online commenter Penny Bright bagged 124 votes.

Mr Ross, an Auckland City counciler, beat broadcaster Maggie Barry in the nomination race for the safe eastern suburbs seat.

________________________________________________________________________

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10710451

Ross wins Botany seat for National

By Celeste Gorrell Anstiss

5:30 AM Sunday Mar 6, 2011

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John Key celebrates with Parliament’s newest MP, Jami-Lee Ross. Photo / Michael Craig

Jami-Lee Ross celebrated victory for National in the Botany byelection with Prime Minister John Key last night.

Ross polled 8150 votes or 56.7 per cent of the turnout. Labour Party candidate Michael Wood was runner-up with 4154 votes (27.9 per cent) and Paul Young of the New Citizens Party was third with 1572 (10.5 per cent).

Turnout was low, about 36.5 per cent.

The byelection was called to find a replacement for National MP Pansy Wong, who resigned after criticism of her use of the international travel subsidy.

Ross, 25, becomes the youngest current MP. He was voted into the Auckland Council last year but left to campaign for the Botany seat.

First elected to the Manukau City Council in 2004, Mr Ross was returned in 2007.

Ross said he wanted to bring “young blood” and “a strong voice for Botany” to Parliament, with a focus on law and order and the economy.

His wife Lucy and grandmother were also at last night’s celebration.

By Celeste Gorrell Anstiss | Email Celeste

The winning candidate in the 2008 election, Pansy Wong (National Party), captured a majority (56.22%) of the 30,919 valid electorate votes cast for candidates in the Botany electorate. The Botany electorate was a new electorate for the 2008 election and therefore there are no previous election results. The National Party also captured a majority (61.25%) of the party votes in Botany. Turnout (total votes cast as a proportion of enrolled electors) in 2008 was 76.29%.

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March 6, 2011 - Posted by | Botany By-election 2011, Fighting corruption in NZ, Transparency in Govt spending

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